Are Warmer Waves FINALLY on the Way?

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Erik Kirby enjoys the first of the warm swell at The Washout in late February. Photograph by W. Wolpert Photography
 
Late February/ eary March 2015 Ocean Surf Shop surf forecast:
 
Our National Weather Service Marine Weather Forecast calls for: “DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG AN OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THAT SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG AND COLDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT PLAINS WILL THEN EXPAND TO BECOME THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL FORM JUST OFFSHORE SUNDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.”
 
We have two areas of low-pressure forecast to affect our marine area for the final days of February. The surf has been good for a few days, but we expect air temperatures to drop late week, Feb. 25–28. Waves will, however, continue in the waist- to stomach-high range, picking up in choppy north easterly wind swell Saturday and Sunday (Feb. 27–28). Waves will continue off and on to wrap up the last week of February in colder, choppy conditions.
 
For the first week of March, we get milder temperatures and some decent surf as we see “Bermuda High Pressure”–style trade wind swell fill-in to start your work week.
 
We should see a ridge of mild–high pressure set up well out into the Atlantic off of the mid-Atlantic coast to start March. This will likely bring slightly warmer weather and boost the water temperatures for the first week of March. I would expect the water to reach around 54 degrees by the end of next week as southerly flow blows in slightly warmer water. The high pressure should hold off the strong cold fronts that have been moving through every few days. There will likely be plenty of waves and warmer weather on tap to start March. We should see south-east medium period swell with winds trending south March 1–4, and waves averaging waist to chest high from the southeast.
 
What a great run of waves for late February/early March!
 
Go surf! 
Bates Hagood, Ocean Surf Shop